Originally Posted by Sini
My high level view of war in Ukraine - while there might exist bad actors on both sides, fundamentally the conflict is about Ukrainian people right for self-determination. Putin is attempting to impose his geopolitical goals by force. These goals are against the will of Ukrainian people. As such, there could not exist moral justification for Putin's invasion and occupation.

Now, if you zoom in from such high level view, it gets really messy. Is US pushing NATO toward Russian borders justifiable? Is Biden's administration benefiting politically from this war? Did Putin spend last 15 years or so declaring NATO membership for Ukraine as a red line? Did Ukraine recently amended its constition with the goal to enter officially into NATO ?

This war was avoidable.

Geopolitics are always messy.

Pushing NATO toward Russia being justifiable? Depends on your point of view. For the USA, not really. For the new member states who have suffered under the whims and domination of their neighbors - both Russia and Germany (and Austria and Prussia etc - yes intentionally referencing 'older' history) then entirely so. Russia has too much of a nuclear deterrent to ever seriously worry that NATO would initiate a land war for conquest, so the prickly point for all sides is whether they should be allowed to dominate and effectively colonize their European neighbors.

Which is a pretty complicated question. Morally, I'd say no. But as a practical matter, there are huge risks and costs involved in cockblocking Russian neo-imperialism as we are currently seeing.

It would be less complicated if Russian leadership hadn't become so terribly corrupt, and if they were actually fair and beneficial partners to the polities in their sphere of influence. As it stands, its less even about simple Russian influence so much as it is giving green light for Moscow and its cronies to loot their neighbors. Its not so much even that NATO has been actively pursuing a push toward Russia as much as it is that Russian politics and tactics push their neighbors into the arms of the West, because for all its imperfections, integrating ties with the West brings a lot more benefit with a lot fewer strings than submitting to Moscow's corrupt oligarchy. Not that Moscow is likely to see it that way.

But when Russian operatives start poisoning local politicians that oppose their agenda, its kind of natural to expect that they might start becoming a bit wary and looking to align with other powers.

Ultimately I do think it is important to remember that it is ultimately mostly on Russia, for the simple fact that Moscow under Putin has seemingly forgotten entirely about the carrot or holding a belief in mutual benefit but instead relying entirely on the stick.

For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)