So I actually watched that, and yeah I think she has a lot of good points. One complicating factor here is actually China, who at least according to our intelligence services were quite aware of Putin's intent to invade. A lot of parralels are drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan, and I think for good reason. Not aggressively pursuing economic warfare would be the equivalent of giving Xi Jingping a green light for his own wars of conquest.

I think the largest factor driving the sanctions politically behind closed doors is Putin's use of economics as well as its intelligence services to undermine and corrupt the West, which, I think Germany in particular, had been strongly influenced by and the invasion gave them a wake up call to reverse course. I think a large part of the real motivation underlying these sanctions is not simply to punish and deter, but rather to excise Russian influence internally - Putin gave the best excuse for doing so, and many western nations intend to grasp the opportunity. So even if Ball is right, I think the situation was pretty much inevitable regardless, with Germany in particular taking the lead to eradicate Russian influence in the EU. The role of the US I think is being a bit overplayed, I think the impetus for the backlash against Putin is actually much stronger in Brussels and Berlin than Washington, which didn't do much more than make the expected noises during the Crimea fiasco some years ago.

Just, Washington is happy to facilitate whatever the EU wishes to do with an eye towards warning China that any overt military action in Asia will be disruptive at best and crippling at worst should they choose such a path.

Which doesn't make the overall calculus here any rosier, but I do think its important to note that the response here isn't a simple emotional knee-jerk, but the result of other factors and conditions that need be recognized in order to find any workable path forward. Because at a minimum, I doubt that EU members will ever be willing to restore Russian internal influence.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)