The real danger at this point is neocons convincing NATO to get involved in a hot war with Russia. This can lead to nukes, especially considering that Russia has a policy to use tactical nukes in cases of direct engagment with NATO ground troops. Even without ICBMs flying, it takes only a few to make East Europe a lot less habitable.

For Putin, the danger is that Ukraine will turn into Afghanistan. If Ukrainian military command was at all clear-minded, this is the scenario they spent preparing for since Crimea annexation.

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