Schneier is legit, and he hits the nail on the head when he points out the difficulties brought about by secrecy and the real problems regarding disclosure of human intelligence that might positively corroborate a hypothesis based on the overall 'feel' of an attack. (that is, bits of pieces of information put together)

I still think there are two core problems with putting it firmly on Putin.

One, being that my understanding, though not perfect, is that the Russian/Eastern Euro hack scene is rather nebulous. Both firms, and private groups might work with the Russian govt one day, the Russian mob the next, and run their own ops on the side for their own profit and entertainment. It might have been Putin ordering something, or it might have been some guy who'd worked on malware for the GRU in the past running his own phishing scam that hit paydirt, or even some GOP-minded or anarchist type that fed them target email lists and bitcoin.

Second, the untrustworthyness of our own intelligence agencies. Did the CIA say it was the Russian govt because they have real sources, or because CrowdStrike wrote a report that made it politically expedient to do so, and the CIA analysts just went with the expedient groupthink? Which, unfortunately, the CIA has a long, storied habit of doing.

Plus, I even doubt their motives. I really think that the upper echelons of the intel community think of themselves as the real Masters of the Universe, capable of twisting facts and slanting reports, and demagogueing politicians into dancing on their puppet strings. Theres a reason our elected leaders change, and our policies dont. And it isn't because we have sane, intelligent policies.

How big of a carrot would it be, for the CIA and their ilk to see billions in new funding for digital surveillance teams and tools, if only the US political class can be convinced that we need a new war - a cyber war - with our old Ruskie frenemies.

Sadly, our own intelligence services are less trustworthy than foreign governments, even bad ones that dont like us. Which is sad, and unfortunate, but it is what it is. And probably wont change. In fact, if Trump has the possibility of doing one truly great thing, it would be to clean house in the intelligence community - even if he does it for the wrong reasons.

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side note: previously I had somehow thought I was typing CrowdStrike, and ended up with CounterStrike, and didn't even notice. Misfired auto-correct, or mental lapse? Not sure, but oops. Lulz.

For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)