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Sini #148249 03/12/22 04:33 PM
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NATO was told during the last administrtation to start spending more on their Defenses. A lot of people scoffed at it. It didn't take them long to change their minds when Russia invaded Ukraine. I just hope some how, some way this ends without Nukes flying. It's just too bad we have a really green VP that seems to be way over their head and a President that can't put a sentence together. Lets hope someone with some sense will step up and get us past this.

Last edited by Wolfgang; 03/12/22 04:34 PM.
Sini #148250 03/12/22 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Sini
My high level view of war in Ukraine - while there might exist bad actors on both sides, fundamentally the conflict is about Ukrainian people right for self-determination. Putin is attempting to impose his geopolitical goals by force. These goals are against the will of Ukrainian people. As such, there could not exist moral justification for Putin's invasion and occupation.

Now, if you zoom in from such high level view, it gets really messy. Is US pushing NATO toward Russian borders justifiable? Is Biden's administration benefiting politically from this war? Did Putin spend last 15 years or so declaring NATO membership for Ukraine as a red line? Did Ukraine recently amended its constition with the goal to enter officially into NATO ?

This war was avoidable.

Geopolitics are always messy.

Pushing NATO toward Russia being justifiable? Depends on your point of view. For the USA, not really. For the new member states who have suffered under the whims and domination of their neighbors - both Russia and Germany (and Austria and Prussia etc - yes intentionally referencing 'older' history) then entirely so. Russia has too much of a nuclear deterrent to ever seriously worry that NATO would initiate a land war for conquest, so the prickly point for all sides is whether they should be allowed to dominate and effectively colonize their European neighbors.

Which is a pretty complicated question. Morally, I'd say no. But as a practical matter, there are huge risks and costs involved in cockblocking Russian neo-imperialism as we are currently seeing.

It would be less complicated if Russian leadership hadn't become so terribly corrupt, and if they were actually fair and beneficial partners to the polities in their sphere of influence. As it stands, its less even about simple Russian influence so much as it is giving green light for Moscow and its cronies to loot their neighbors. Its not so much even that NATO has been actively pursuing a push toward Russia as much as it is that Russian politics and tactics push their neighbors into the arms of the West, because for all its imperfections, integrating ties with the West brings a lot more benefit with a lot fewer strings than submitting to Moscow's corrupt oligarchy. Not that Moscow is likely to see it that way.

But when Russian operatives start poisoning local politicians that oppose their agenda, its kind of natural to expect that they might start becoming a bit wary and looking to align with other powers.

Ultimately I do think it is important to remember that it is ultimately mostly on Russia, for the simple fact that Moscow under Putin has seemingly forgotten entirely about the carrot or holding a belief in mutual benefit but instead relying entirely on the stick.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
Sini #148325 03/18/22 07:39 PM
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I keep listening to channels of Russian dissidents; the somber view from within Russia is that sanctions will be nothing short of devastating and there is non-zero chance of “iron curtain” to block flight of talent. I keep listening to the channels of Ukrainian politicians, the view is that Putin lost the strategic war and soon to lose tactical war; Kiev could not be taken with what troops and equipment Putin has and as casualties on Russian side mount (and they are catastrophic) and West keep supplying arms, it is only a matter of time until there is complete collapse of Russian invasion.

I think Finnish War scenario is highly probable at this point.


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Sini #148337 03/19/22 12:58 PM
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China's Xi Jinping stated war in Ukrain is 'in no one's interest' and "state-to-state relations cannot go to the stage of military hostilities". Way it was worded a) it is war and not military action b) state-to-state relationships are signals to Putin that Xi will not support Russia in this war.


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Sini #148349 03/26/22 12:10 PM
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‘This Man Cannot Remain in Power,’ Biden Says in a Brazen Challenge to Putin.

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In an impassioned speech in Warsaw, President Biden insisted that the Russian people are not the enemy, but described Vladimir V. Putin as a tyrant.

Of all missteps that Biden has recently stumbled into, this one is one of the biggest. This message will allow Putin to claim “US is after regime change in Russia”, use that to retoactively justify his actions and offload responsibility on disastrous Ukrainian war and likely have a good chance to rally Russian people and remain in power. All Biden had to do is talk about dead Ukranian children and civilians. Instead, he threw Putina a lifeline.


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Sini #148350 03/26/22 01:24 PM
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Yeah, it wont be helpful. Overall I think Biden has done well so far, but there are things he could have done better. I dont waste too much time criticizing though,since overall the handling has been sane. At least he has taken the opportunity to reconsolidate the political unity of the Western Alliance, while very forcefully standing firm on Article 5. I shudder to image what would have happened under Trump, who would have vaccilated between waxing lovingly on the size of Putins schlong, and wondering aloud if the US should bother defending NATO members and probably saying things like they should do stuff on their own. Easy to see how some eastern countries might have already entred the war in that scenario, thinking they needed to act now since the US might not be there to back them up if Putin won in Ukraine and started eying the rest of the region.

I do worry that Biden's slips will make Putin... TOO nervous. Thats a danger as well, because it is patently obvious at this point that without excessive WMD usage the US military would easily manhandle the conventional forces Putin can array. Thus, in the event Putin decided that conflict with West was inevitable, the odds that things would immediately escalate are frighteningly high.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
Sini #148351 03/27/22 06:31 AM
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I think your models of Trump's behaviour are poisoned by now proven false Russiagate narrative.


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Sini #148352 03/27/22 01:04 PM
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I just recall things Trump actually said and did, combined with the generally high levels of incoherence and lack of coordination among his top officials. I'm not accusing him of being a Manchurian Candidate, I'm observing that his own ego and whims override any thoughts of larger policy goals and was incoherent, combined with severe incompetence at high levels of cabinet. The fact that some people played up particular angles that may not have been true doesn't in any way imply that Trump cares about anything other than himself, or was capable of executing a coherent foreign policy in time of crisis.

Trump need not be a foreign plant to still be utterly incompetent, mercurial, and incapable of proving effective international leadership. His buddying up with and general reverence for 'manly' foreign authoritarian figures is also well known and documented as is his extremely strained relationship with much of our Euro allies. As opposed to what I posited might happen earlier, its also quite possible he would have committed or threatened to commit US forces to combat to look like the big tough guy, or even to try and show how he wasnt some patsy for Putin.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
Sini #148360 03/29/22 11:41 AM
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New development. Yesterday Russian Command declared "mission accomplished" with Kiev front and started full retreat. This is major defeat that was indirectly acknowledged. Anticipated next move is redeploying all remaining Russian troops toward DNR(2014 captured territory) in attempts to save face and accomplish any of the initial military goals.

This is already catastrophic defeat and possibly regime-changing humiliation for Putin.


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Sini #148361 03/29/22 07:42 PM
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Hard to see how it could be different. I know movies and such depict battles as everyone killing and dying left and right, but in truth even 50% of top estimates of Russian losses putting KIA at 8k is a completely catastrophic number in historical terms. Battle of the Bulge iirc had 500-600k US troops involved, resulting in about 20k dead on US side, and considered one of bloodiest battles in history. Russia mobilized 150k into Ukraine, and by all accounts has lost at least 8k KIA possibly many more. 5% KIA attrition indicated likely total casulties including injury/capture about 3x to 4x that, which is completely unsustainable in any scenario except desperate last defense of a homeland. And they hadnt even gotten into the real urban combat yet.

Shifting tactics from attempting to take the country to trying to take a province, or Oblast as I believe they are called there, shows that at least some rational thinking still exists in the Kremlin.

Regime change does seem possible in mid to long term. Troops that are sent into that kind of meat grinder unprepared, for questionable goals and most importantly - under incompetent leadership, are historically very prone to to taking up 'political activism' after their return home.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
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