The KGB Oracle Forums General Public Discussion (SPECIAL ACCESS) KGB Political Debate Central Putin on a blitz

I was suprised to agree with Krystal Ball, broad sanctions and social-media driven overreaction shifting Overton window makes it more likely that we end up with a direct NATO vs Russia conflic and risk global nuclear war.

So I actually watched that, and yeah I think she has a lot of good points. One complicating factor here is actually China, who at least according to our intelligence services were quite aware of Putin's intent to invade. A lot of parralels are drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan, and I think for good reason. Not aggressively pursuing economic warfare would be the equivalent of giving Xi Jingping a green light for his own wars of conquest.

I think the largest factor driving the sanctions politically behind closed doors is Putin's use of economics as well as its intelligence services to undermine and corrupt the West, which, I think Germany in particular, had been strongly influenced by and the invasion gave them a wake up call to reverse course. I think a large part of the real motivation underlying these sanctions is not simply to punish and deter, but rather to excise Russian influence internally - Putin gave the best excuse for doing so, and many western nations intend to grasp the opportunity. So even if Ball is right, I think the situation was pretty much inevitable regardless, with Germany in particular taking the lead to eradicate Russian influence in the EU. The role of the US I think is being a bit overplayed, I think the impetus for the backlash against Putin is actually much stronger in Brussels and Berlin than Washington, which didn't do much more than make the expected noises during the Crimea fiasco some years ago.

Just, Washington is happy to facilitate whatever the EU wishes to do with an eye towards warning China that any overt military action in Asia will be disruptive at best and crippling at worst should they choose such a path.

Which doesn't make the overall calculus here any rosier, but I do think its important to note that the response here isn't a simple emotional knee-jerk, but the result of other factors and conditions that need be recognized in order to find any workable path forward. Because at a minimum, I doubt that EU members will ever be willing to restore Russian internal influence.

It is hard not to feel outrage after seeing war footage, especially when it involves deaths of civilians and children. Such reaction is human, but in our response we MUST NOT FORGET THAT PUTIN HAS NUKES.

Putin must have an off-ramp that does not involve regime change or he might press the red button on his way out, especially if rumors about his deteriorating mental health are true.

Visa, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia over Ukraine invasion

This is continuation of an alarming new trend of politicization of payment processing. Cancelling credit cards of “people we don’t like” shows that cashless society will be much more repressive. More so, even this move is morally dubious, as what every day Russian has to do with Putin’s invasion? It isn’t like Russia had free elections and they voted for the guy.

I do start to worry that we are focusing too much on punishment at this point, as well as rumors about preparing for govt in exile for Ukraine.

Better path forward right now is supplying military hardware with a quickness, and spooling up a refugee program to resettle large amounts of Ukrainians in the USA.

I am having very difficult time understanding how the war is unfolding in Ukraine (and I can read both Ukrainian and Russian). Russian media appears to be into conspiracies – Ukrainian Nazis, US bio labs and all kinds of other non-credible bullshit. They are also forced to call this invasion a special military operation and consequently don’t report Ukrainian military casualties as this would undermine that narrative. Ukrainian media obviously does not report its own side’s military casualties, only Russian military casualties. Fantastically, I read reports of Ukrainians killing Russian Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, member of the command staff. Even accounting for exaggeration, it appears that Russian Army is suffering very substantial losses. I have to assume that Ukrainians are suffering similarly high, if not higher, casualties.

Turns out, US official just confirmed, direct quote: "Ukraine has biological research facislities, which in fact we are now concerned Russian forces may be seeking..."

https://rumble.com/vwwv0d-us-official-confirms-the-existence-of-bio-labs-in-ukraine.html

What the fucking fuck, for fucks sake?!

Putin is preparing a terrorist attack on Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant and will blame Ukraine
Situations like this are why going all-in on sanctions was a bad idea. NATO has no more non-military deterrents left. If this reporting is true (by no means certain), what else could be done to dissuade Putin?

I thought Alex Berenson's take on this seemed pretty logical, though it doesn't make it right. One of his other posts related to Ukraine is titled "Everyone involved is bad, some are worse than others." Hard to argue with that sentiment.

My high level view of war in Ukraine - while there might exist bad actors on both sides, fundamentally the conflict is about Ukrainian people right for self-determination. Putin is attempting to impose his geopolitical goals by force. These goals are against the will of Ukrainian people. As such, there could not exist moral justification for Putin's invasion and occupation.

Now, if you zoom in from such high level view, it gets really messy. Is US pushing NATO toward Russian borders justifiable? Is Biden's administration benefiting politically from this war? Did Putin spend last 15 years or so declaring NATO membership for Ukraine as a red line? Did Ukraine recently amended its constition with the goal to enter officially into NATO ?

This war was avoidable.