Theyre all crap, for various reasons. I could actually wax poetic for hours about the crap the pollsters do, and I have even better authority than most on the topic because I used to work for one and saw more than enough lollerstats to fill 100 million spreadsheets.

Never trust any poll at all that doesnt have fully published methodology, weighting, and questionnaire. And only half trust those that do. Not that they are intentionally trying to jilt things (the ones that publish their methods anyway, they are typically relatively clean), but polling is an extremely imperfect science that has gotten even more difficult over the years as people switch their usage patterns from landlines to cellphones. The spread that day can often be determined by the pollsters intuition, going by how they think the data should be weighted to be most reflective. Obviously, humans misjudge these types of things quite often.

Also, much like video game reviews... if other pollsters come out with a view, it *can* cause a certain pressure to somewhat conform...unless you are *really* confident that you have some sort of advantage in your evaluation.

Or in other words, the Romney dip - and conversely the Romney rise post-debate could easily be as caused by the *expectations of the pollsters and how they think they should be interpreting the data, as actual changes in the electorate.

On that note, I am pretty nuetral on the whole recent polling crap... havent had any time to spend digging. Just saying theyre all fucked up.

But yes, polls do intentionally skew things quite often. Some more than others. They also get things wrong. Though it happens to both parties equally, over any reasonable timescale the amount and degree of skewing is actually about 1:1 in most circumstances. The people who get hosed the most are 3rd parties, who often get "weighted" out of the running altogether to create the image of no possible support.

And if you think *that* is a conspiracy theory, even though 90% of the major polls are directly funded by the parties, campaigns, or partisan interests.... then I also have some prime swampland in Florida to sell you.

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Last edited by Derid; 10/09/12 09:50 AM.
For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)