Someone asked me in a PM to also post the polling data from http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

Real Clear Politics is an average of all respectable polling data including Fox (Showing Obama up by 5) and rasmussenreports.com (Showing a tie).

unskewedpolls.com is complete bullshit, and if the majority of you are bothered by Real Clear, I will just removing the polling all together.

Your honest opinions are invited.

Just so you know, a couple months before the election in 1980 Jimmy Carter had a significant lead on Reagan in the polls. We all know the ass whooping Carter took in that election. Polls are about as accurate as forecasting weather.

If we all agreed on what polling service to use as a banner, then it would be fair. But to post one and only one polling site is an over reach.

So we can either have all polls posted as banners, or a poll as banner we all agree on/ majority, or non at all.

I say leave it and freeze it on election day so we can all see just how skewed the polls were or weren't after the election.

For the record though, all the "respectable" polls are using the record setting democrat turnout from 2008 (up by like 8%) and most of them are doubling down on that number and utilizing samples with 12% more democrats in their polls. Make what you will of that, but I don't see the democrat base being nearly as riled up as they were in '08, but states are reporting record number of republican registrations.

I removed it, and we can check back on RealClear after the election.

Aww.

National polls dont mean a lot though, electoral votes are awarded by state.

On that note, Obama is still in the lead for now.

Not if you look at http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ . Romney is leading by 10 points. Looks like the Republicans have the race wrapped up! Congratulations!

I mean all polling agencies are liberal biased communist pot smoking hippies.

I am sure things are going to go the conservative on election day. Wink wink!

Oh I forgot, even Fox news, because it is clear that they are a liberal biased *News* organization (cough cough).

I have nothing to do with unskewedpolls.com argument.. not sure why you quoted me.

I am the one that sent him the message. I found the most right leaning pollster I could, reffered to by NPR, to be more right of even then fox, and sent it to him. Asking if he was going to post one poll then he needed to post them as well. Only in the name of fairness that the left is allways screaming and having bleeding hearts about. This forces Jet into a position, either post that website and affirm his prinpalces that it would be fair, not post it and go against his prinipales of fairness that is the corner stone of just about every agrument he ever makes, open it up to a debate on which poll to use as a banner, or take it down.

Jet has opted to take it down.

For the record, I prefer rassmusen polling. Why they have been off in the past from time to time, I find they use a wide spectrum of voters, and striaght foward questions.

Score one for the drug addict in the corner.

Hey Derid, it was not aimed at you, I was just hoping someone would say something so I could rant. Not you specifically. Red and I are having some PM fun, and I wanted to continue to needle him.

Personally I think he was trying to get me to show my colors and mandate a specific poll. I think I disappointed him when I took it down to be fair.

I love this shit as long as we all can keep it gentlemanly.

Gentlemanly includes calling you a shithead from time to time right? :D

Ah IC IC.

If we want to follow the race... we should post 4 polls... OH, PA, FL and MI

Mitt basically needs to win 3/4 of those states.

Yes, for the last few days me and jet been pming a couple of times a day, infact it is something I look foward to.

So, who wants to start a new business with me where we advertise for political races in MMO's...

I'm sure someone with too much money that wants votes would pay for those services.

Count me on board. MMo is a new media medium and social network. Most young gamers grow up to be old gamers, and if start young with it you can push them in one direction or anthoer. If your serious, let me know, and then give me a few days to write a bussiness plan.

Yes, congratulations to Republicans. You managed to vote Romney in (but just barely) when mostly republican votes were counted (polled).

In related news, when Red was polled 100,000 times Romney won with a 6 point lead. We would have more statistical power, if not for Red breaking down into hysterics around 100,023th time being polled and sobbing something along the "just leave me the fuck alone with this stupid question" lines....

In related news - Gary Johnson may take Ohio out of play for Romney.

I am personally working toward this end myself.

http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/28/gary-johnson-gains-support-and-may-take

I polled for Gangis Khan.

Pfft, I knew you were just another RINO.

You have confused me for some one else, I have never said I was a republican.

Hey how the hell are the polls doing nowdays ? Bahahahhaha !

Interesting! When they go your way they are accurate. When they don't it is a conspiracy. Create your own reality if you don't like the truth, is what to many repubs do. All I can do is hope that people expose Romney for all the lies he is telling.

LMAO You sure you want to go there !

You must be taking lessons from Mitt. You completely dodged the comment.



No comment I take it from the conservative folks who doubted the polls a week or so ago?

Theyre all crap, for various reasons. I could actually wax poetic for hours about the crap the pollsters do, and I have even better authority than most on the topic because I used to work for one and saw more than enough lollerstats to fill 100 million spreadsheets.

Never trust any poll at all that doesnt have fully published methodology, weighting, and questionnaire. And only half trust those that do. Not that they are intentionally trying to jilt things (the ones that publish their methods anyway, they are typically relatively clean), but polling is an extremely imperfect science that has gotten even more difficult over the years as people switch their usage patterns from landlines to cellphones. The spread that day can often be determined by the pollsters intuition, going by how they think the data should be weighted to be most reflective. Obviously, humans misjudge these types of things quite often.

Also, much like video game reviews... if other pollsters come out with a view, it *can* cause a certain pressure to somewhat conform...unless you are *really* confident that you have some sort of advantage in your evaluation.

Or in other words, the Romney dip - and conversely the Romney rise post-debate could easily be as caused by the *expectations of the pollsters and how they think they should be interpreting the data, as actual changes in the electorate.

On that note, I am pretty nuetral on the whole recent polling crap... havent had any time to spend digging. Just saying theyre all fucked up.

But yes, polls do intentionally skew things quite often. Some more than others. They also get things wrong. Though it happens to both parties equally, over any reasonable timescale the amount and degree of skewing is actually about 1:1 in most circumstances. The people who get hosed the most are 3rd parties, who often get "weighted" out of the running altogether to create the image of no possible support.

And if you think *that* is a conspiracy theory, even though 90% of the major polls are directly funded by the parties, campaigns, or partisan interests.... then I also have some prime swampland in Florida to sell you.

edit: edit

Nope, we learned that from you Jet. :)

That is why I like real clear. It is an average of all.

Third parties still get the shaft. And it still reflects the same groupthink.

Best polls generally for the two-party comparison is Rasmussen. One well-run poll by a talented pollster is worth any amount of averages of incompetents.

Jet you sure where quick to post the polls on the site when Obama was in the lead ! But now he is not you are so quick to talk the Lefty bullshit as always !

Right Prism, Cant believe the polls until your boy is ahead.

I am still happy to post them and would like to regardless of what they say.