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Derid #139380 12/21/16 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted By: Derid


Seriously though, there is a difference between limited govt and weak govt.



There might be, but 99% of calls for small government are calls for weak government that doesn't prosecute white collar, doesn't protect environment, and doesn't provide any safety nets.


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Sini #139382 12/22/16 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted By: Sini
Originally Posted By: Derid


Seriously though, there is a difference between limited govt and weak govt.



There might be, but 99% of calls for small government are calls for weak government that doesn't prosecute white collar, doesn't protect environment, and doesn't provide any safety nets.

I'm not seeing that. I am seeing calls to enforce more laws, nnot less, since the Obama administration was infuriatingly selective regarding which laws would be enforced, and which would not be enforced.

Failed policies like that are another factor that led to the election of Donald Trump.


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Owain #139383 12/22/16 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted By: Owain
On the topic of gerrymandering: For gerrymandering to be a thing, at one point, Democrats had to have been in charge and districts had to have been drawn in their favor. For district boundaries to have changed, Democrats would have to had to have been voted out of those offices.

I think what actually happened is that the composition of voting districts changed to benefit Republicans, and that when they were redrawn, they were redrawn to more accurately reflect their current composition.

The gerrymandering complaint then boils down to a ineffective excuse to try to explain electoral failure. Given the collapse faced by Democrats in most states across the nation in the last eight years, that cannot all be due to gerrymandering. Democrats will have to come to grips with that if they ever wish to dig themselves out of the hole in which they currently find themselves.


The Republican strategy to Gerrymander was legendary in 2012, drawing amazement from both sides in a well executed strategy.

The Great Gerrymander of 2012

Republicans have just done a better job of staying in power. They were more organized and won when and where it counts despite being in the minority population wise in many cases.

Take a look at these districts as an example:



Here it is explained:




I am not going to cry about it. My side is just disorganized and lazy. I think exactly what is happening now, needs to if we are ever going to return to power.

Whether we can get it together or not remains to be seen.


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JetStar #139384 12/22/16 11:06 AM
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If we look at trending, clearly the odds remain in the Democrats favor if they can get organized. I know popular vote is not how the House and the President are elected, but it does show an important trend.

The Democrat outpaced President-elect Donald Trump by almost 2.9 million votes, with 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%), according to revised and certified final election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

45.2 million Americans cast a vote for a Democratic Senate candidate, while 39.3 million Americans voted for a Republican.

In House of Representatives however, Republicans captured the majority of the "popular vote" for the House on Election Day, collecting about 56.3 million votes while Democrats got about 53.2 million.


My best guess right now is there will be a backlash against Trump by his own supporters when he is unable to fulfill the promises he made in his campaign.

In this BBC Article comparing promises to current positions, you can see him backing away. Also, it seems he has "drained the swamp" into his own cabinet. No one knows what is going to happen, but I think my assessment is plausible based on the facts so far.

If the Republicans are unable to deliver, then the Democrats will be in good shape for the 2020 Census and the redistricting that follows. Then they can replicate the genius gerrymandering that the Republcans pulled off in 2012.

The Republicans have a historic opportunity to prove all their claims by using their super majority to revoke Democratic laws and policies and implement their own according to their strategy.

{popcorn}


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Sini #139385 12/22/16 11:30 AM
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Those surplus Dem numbers pretty much just come from NY and California, hence the Democrat problem.

With Pelosi and Schumer at the helm, I don't think the party's future looks bright at all. To gerrymander, you need to control statehouses - the GOP controls 35 or so, and it isn't likely to change regardless of Trump - unless the Democrat party changes, and it isn't about to - Pelosi already dug her heels in.

Honestly, the political future seems to be developing into NY/CA vs the rest of the country, and regardless of who "wins" in such a scenario, everyone loses.


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Derid #139386 12/22/16 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted By: Derid

Those surplus Dem numbers pretty much just come from NY and California, hence the Democrat problem.

With Pelosi and Schumer at the helm, I don't think the party's future looks bright at all. To gerrymander, you need to control statehouses - the GOP controls 35 or so, and it isn't likely to change regardless of Trump - unless the Democrat party changes, and it isn't about to - Pelosi already dug her heels in.

Honestly, the political future seems to be developing into NY/CA vs the rest of the country, and regardless of who "wins" in such a scenario, everyone loses.



We have to see how the Republicans do.


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JetStar #139391 12/22/16 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted By: JetStar
Originally Posted By: Owain
On the topic of gerrymandering: For gerrymandering to be a thing, at one point, Democrats had to have been in charge and districts had to have been drawn in their favor. For district boundaries to have changed, Democrats would have to had to have been voted out of those offices.

I think what actually happened is that the composition of voting districts changed to benefit Republicans, and that when they were redrawn, they were redrawn to more accurately reflect their current composition.

The gerrymandering complaint then boils down to a ineffective excuse to try to explain electoral failure. Given the collapse faced by Democrats in most states across the nation in the last eight years, that cannot all be due to gerrymandering. Democrats will have to come to grips with that if they ever wish to dig themselves out of the hole in which they currently find themselves.


The Republican strategy to Gerrymander was legendary in 2012, drawing amazement from both sides in a well executed strategy.

The Great Gerrymander of 2012

Republicans have just done a better job of staying in power. They were more organized and won when and where it counts despite being in the minority population wise in many cases.

Take a look at these districts as an example:



Here it is explained:




I am not going to cry about it. My side is just disorganized and lazy. I think exactly what is happening now, needs to if we are ever going to return to power.

Whether we can get it together or not remains to be seen.


How is the House not voted in by popular vote? Thats the only way anyone in the house gets elected.
Your assessment is as bad as Hillary's honor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/26/opinion/sunday/its-the-geography-stupid.html?_r=0


You dont take into account populations of small states.
I get in my state 2 Senators same as California and the population difference is 40 mill in cali, mostly dem, and 2 mill in Nebraska, mostly rep. 10 million votes as compared to 500 thousand votes.


Last edited by Helemoto; 12/22/16 09:26 PM.
Helemoto #139392 12/22/16 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted By: Helemoto

How is the House not voted in by popular vote? Thats the only way anyone in the house gets elected.


Representatives represent and are elected by districts that are drawn by the majority party after the Census. You obviously didnt bother to look at the example I gave.

All you have to do is draw the districts in your favor.

To return your unwarranted insult, your knowledge of our system of government is as bad as Trump's opinion of women. Grab that pussy, you know, you can do anything you want if you are famous.


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Sini #139393 12/22/16 11:25 PM
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House redistricting isn't done at the Federal level though, it is done at the state level. The scenario where the minority party somehow gerrymanders themselves into the majority doesn't really happen, the majority party of the state in question can just push their advantage some. Both parties do it, equally, as they are able.

Right now the Democrats throw it out as a red herring, because they have had the worse of it lately due the party messaging being out of touch with flyover country, resulting in steady progressive losses.

The problem isn't the gerrymandering, it's the message and intent.

Jet, I think you had it half right when you said the Democrats are lazy and disorganized, that's true - but not the whole story.

I think it unfortunate, as straight GOP control is every bit as scary as straight Democrat control. Plus, I wasn't joking or exaggerating when I earlier spoke of the GOP calling a Constitutional Convention. I think they just need 4 more statehouse trifectas, and the GOP could then call a convention and ratify whatever amendments they wanted.


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Derid #139394 12/23/16 12:00 AM
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Let's meet the "the Picasso of gerrymandering" shall we?

The Picasso of Gerrymandering


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