The KGB Oracle
Posted By: Sini A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship - 05/21/13 05:33 PM
A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship

Quote:
It is to a generation of men who think stagflation is always and everywhere a looming phenomenon. No matter how low inflation goes, they see portents of Weimar. But that neverending 70s show isn't just a phobia of rising prices. It's the idea that the solution to economic pain is more pain. In other words, Volcker-worship.

Whipping inflation didn't exactly make Volcker popular in the short run. It took what was at the time the deepest recession of the postwar period to bring down people's inflation expectations. In other words, it was the paragon of what Very Serious People think about when they think about "leadership": inflicting pain today for a better tomorrow. It just so happened that in this case, it was the right thing to do.

It's not now. Our present problem isn't too little inflation-fighting, but too much. The only bit of good news is this is an easy problem to solve: with interest rates as low as they'll ever be, the government can borrow money and put people back to work. It's really that simple. And besides, there's no reason we shouldn't produce as much as we can now just because we made mistakes before.

But this doesn't make for an exciting narrative. A failure of ideas is much less dramatic than a failure of Leadership™. Where's the sacrifice? The hard-headed vision? Give me penance, not prosperity. Give me hard choices, not easy ways out. But most of all, give me what worked in the past.
Posted By: Derid Re: A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship - 05/21/13 08:58 PM

One problem with that article - real inflation, as they would have measured it in 1979 ,and should still measure it today if they wanted to record actual inflation - has been between 9% and 13% for the past decade or so.

If you use the current "official" inflation CPI to try and make any sort of analysis, you immediately fail due to invalid input. GIGO.
Posted By: Sini Re: A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship - 05/22/13 12:22 AM
I keep reading "real inflation" here and there, but haven't seen any numbers outside of suspicious right-wing blogs.

Do you have anything credible to support that 13% number? Also my average yearly return has been about 15% for the past 10 years, are you telling me I am running in place? It certainly does not feel that way.
Posted By: Derid Re: A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship - 05/22/13 12:45 AM
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

You are doing well compared to many. Shadowstats public area has inflation comparisons, based on the 1980 methodology and the 1990 methodology.
Posted By: Cheerio Re: A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship - 05/25/13 04:27 AM
Reading that the goverment-calculated inflation rate is liw, and believing it, has to be the height of folly.
If you buy food or gas, you know that prices are going up up up. Gasoline has doubled in 5 years. Loaf of bread from $3 to $5 in the same time. I know this because I have been eating orowheat wheat bread for over 15 years.

What caused this if not inflation?? Food production is up, oil is average.

If there is another explanation I would like to hear it.
Posted By: Derid Re: A failure of ideas - Volcker-worship - 05/25/13 05:22 AM

Food and fuel are conveniently no longer counted in the "official" inflation index.
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