The KGB Oracle
Posted By: Wolfgang OIL - 02/16/12 01:10 AM
Since Iran has came out with it's new Nuclear Achievements, we get to pay for it at the pump. Fact is we can use our own assets by using what WE have WHILE we research & develop other solutions. This will allow us not to be hurt when countries like Iran does something stupid that causes us to pay more.

I was watching doomsday preppers last night one couple had a large & several small wind mills that had the compacity to supply them with the electricity they needed. They may not have had enough power to run something other than simply appliances, but as primitive as those small wind mills were it's hard to believe we can't find someone that can build a bigger one that's efficient.

It's simply amazing as much technology that is out there, we are still brought down by some camel fucking country, because SOME people don't want to be energy Independent. Then start with the scare tactics of how bad oil is. if it's so bad... stop using anything that is made by or runs off oil. Enough with being dependent on others, we can R&D other energy sources while using our assets to keep prices in a bearable range.
Posted By: Ictinike Re: OIL - 02/16/12 01:29 AM
You bitch too much.. So much you act like my wife so go back into the kitchen and make me a sammich, ok honey bear?

lol :)
Posted By: Tasorin Re: OIL - 02/16/12 02:39 AM
Of course it has nothing to do with an election year.

Or the large number of Eastern US refineries that throttled back production, or the issue of us importing crude on speculated prices, and then selling an ever growing portion of the refined petrol abroad to control the supply curve on the rack domestically. Never mind the staggering State tax you pay at the pump that partially goes into the general fund to be used at discretion.

Yesterday the think tanks predicted Gas to rise to a National average of something like $3.89 a gallon by the end of this Summer.


Look at it this way Wolfgang.

When Obama gets re-elected in Nov of 2012, you only have to put with him for about a month before the end of the world.

Happy now?

[dead]

Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 02/16/12 05:50 PM
Quote:
They may not have had enough power to run something other than simply appliances, but as primitive as those small wind mills were it's hard to believe we can't find someone that can build a bigger one that's efficient.


I will take "What is Renewable Energy initiative, infrastructure upgrades and windmill farms for $200".
Posted By: Wolfgang Re: OIL - 02/17/12 12:52 AM
Originally Posted By: sinij
Quote:
They may not have had enough power to run something other than simply appliances, but as primitive as those small wind mills were it's hard to believe we can't find someone that can build a bigger one that's efficient.


I will take "What is Renewable Energy initiative, infrastructure upgrades and windmill farms for $200".


Are you saying you can get a windmill for $200? I'm calling bullshit on that! I have a friend that tried to get combined solar panels & a wind turbine so he could get off the grid. The cost was going to be over $25,000 and it was only going to be able to supply 1/3 of his power needs.

If he was willing to get his family to only watch one TV and barely have any other appliances running, then he could get by with it. The people I was talking about on the show "doomsday Preppers" used little energy. They didn't need a whole lot of electrical output, plus it was only 2 people compared to my friends family of 4. The cost of solar & wind outweighs the output. More research & development could change this in a few years. To keep denying the fact that we are still heavy consumers of oil and that we can simply stop cold turkey is very naive, and EVERYONE will pay for it one way or the other.

It's in our best interest to use what we have while being more aggressive towards making other energy supplies more cost efficient!
Posted By: Ictinike Re: OIL - 02/17/12 01:08 AM
Going green = big bucks. Until it is cost worthy for everyone to join up the dependency on the existing infrastructure of oil based resources won't happen. Case in point, Wolf's example of a wind turbine that only powered X but cost YYYYYYYYY.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 02/17/12 01:34 AM
No, wind energy is not cost effective at this point for a number of reasons - a) infrastructure needed to transport it from where it can be cheaply and readily made is simply not there, US power grid is dated and not getting any newer b) peak demand - wind is not reliable enough to be sole source of power.

Both a) and b) can be addressed, but in order to even start working on these problems we need to start using it. It is extremely unlikely that black swan event going to solve our energy issues, much more reasonable to assume that over time we can reduce costs and increase availability/reliability of wind to reduce reliance on other sources.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 02/17/12 01:38 AM
As to domestic energy market - my crystal ball predictions is that "smart" metering will become the standard and peak-demand costs will keep increasing.

Get used to the ideas of not running AC between 2pm and 7pm, in 20 years only well-off houses will be able to afford high-load usage during peaks.
Posted By: Tasorin Re: OIL - 02/17/12 02:29 AM
In 20 years I will be retired and no longer living in the US.
Posted By: Ictinike Re: OIL - 02/17/12 03:39 AM
Don't have AC now, never have, probably never will.

If it's too hot where you live, move. It's how our ancestor's did it, lol.
Posted By: Wolfgang Re: OIL - 02/17/12 04:09 AM
If I couldn't have A/C I would have to move to Alaska. Otherwise I wouldn't be able to sleep in the heat. As far back as I can remember as a kid, I have never been able to go to sleep when it's uncomfortably warm/hot.

As far as paying a higher premium for peak energy consumption times. It COULD come to that if the retards in Washington try to force energies that aren't efficient. I just don't see how it's bad to use EVERY Energy resource we can, in order to keep prices manageable for everyone. That seems like the smarter way to go, then again I don't have any college degree's so what do I know! [frustrated]
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 02/17/12 05:13 AM
Originally Posted By: Tasorin
In 20 years I will be retired and no longer living in the US.


Clearly, you didn't think this all the way through. You think you will be allowed to retire? Who is going to pay US massive debt then? Unemployed and underemployed used-to-be-youth ?

I think your window to GTFO is 10 +/- 3 years, if that. After that you will lose ability to do so. Likely because your savings will mean jack shit because of currency devaluation, but there are couple other different scenarios I can think of.

I know this is bleak picture, but chances are you will croak on the job, in your 80s and will count yourself lucky to have a job. Spindrift baby boomers are to thank for this, but they too will share this fate, with exception of lucky early wave that got to already retire.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 02/17/12 05:20 AM
Originally Posted By: Wolfgang
As far as paying a higher premium for peak energy consumption times. It COULD come to that if ...


Sorry, there is no "IF". Energy going to go up in costs regardless what anyone does, metering and data logging technology keep going down in price, and pressures to keep consumer costs down so not to price getting-poorer-by-the-day American public will only become more urgent.

With this trends peak time usage will be luxury in a very near future.

This is not all together bad, by spiking peak costs we will be able to keep peak demands from exponentially growing. This simple market effect will do more to get everyone more energy efficient than 10 White House initiatives.
Posted By: Derid Re: OIL - 02/17/12 06:01 PM

Energy usage has been getting much more efficient lately, and we have enough domestic energy yet untapped to power the country, including any foreseeable demand growth, for several hundred years. The State of WV alone has enough coal to power the whole country for about 250 years.

Politics, and crony capitalism - regulating standard energy out of business so politically connected "green" producers get undeserved windfalls is the only reason for costs to rise.

Interesting that the Saudis have been spending lobbying and PR money to derail energy exploration here in my own neighborhood...

The only real thing to worry about, is a corrupt and crony govt.
Posted By: Arkh Re: OIL - 02/17/12 06:13 PM
Go nuclear (woot Thorium) until we get something with no waste. That's the only way to deal with energy unless some crazy random thing is discovered in some lab.
Posted By: Tasorin Re: OIL - 02/17/12 11:34 PM
Originally Posted By: sinij
Originally Posted By: Tasorin
In 20 years I will be retired and no longer living in the US.


Clearly, you didn't think this all the way through. You think you will be allowed to retire? Who is going to pay US massive debt then? Unemployed and underemployed used-to-be-youth ?


You make me laugh. Who the fuck is going to stop me from retiring?

I am a Financial King Kong on a pile of gold like Scrooge mutha fuck'n Duck.

Here is a couple hints.

Undergrad and Graduate Degree(s).

Not Married.

No Kids.

No Debt.

Fully Funded Fortune 50 Guaranteed Pension.

401k with insane options that most my other 2.7%'r friends are jealous of. The Boeing VIP CD (See Corp. Note) is so unfair for sheltering money in a down market. I can even purchase other currencies to hedge the dollar. You wish your 401k did that.

Retiree Medical Coverage.

In the next 2 years I will hit the max tax cap for the first 125k.

Don't even get me started on my Parents incorporated wealth that makes me look like a pauper that will pass without death tax because they listened to there Financial King Kong of a son.

There are others here as well that make my financial portfolio look like it was written on the back of a Bazooka bubble gum wrapper.

Retirement isn't a question.

It's a fact.

Now go sit in the corner and be quiet for a while.



Posted By: Cheerio Re: OIL - 03/06/12 06:32 AM
Originally Posted By: sinij
No, wind energy is not cost effective at this point for a number of reasons - a) infrastructure needed to transport it from where it can be cheaply and readily made is simply not there, US power grid is dated and not getting any newer b) peak demand - wind is not reliable enough to be sole source of power.

Both a) and b) can be addressed, but in order to even start working on these problems we need to start using it. It is extremely unlikely that black swan event going to solve our energy issues, much more reasonable to assume that over time we can reduce costs and increase availability/reliability of wind to reduce reliance on other sources.


Don't forget that the Kennedy family blocked a wind farm because it would spoil the view from one of their palaces.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2006/04/27/kennedy_faces_fight_on_cape_wind/
Posted By: Wolfgang Re: OIL - 03/06/12 11:23 PM
The lefts desire for an electric car is really fucking stupid at this point. Talking about putting the cart before the horse. Think about it, you're plugging your car into an electrical outlet that is most likely going to be powered by energy supplied from a power plant that runs off coal or other fuel.

I noticed GM has shut down making more Chevy Volts. I guess they finally decided to stop throwing tax payer money at something that isn't up to par. Before we throw more money at a project like the VOLT or any other electrical vehicle, lets think about making energy more efficient going to the electrical outlet before we start plugging shit into it that itself isn't efficient either, like the VOLT.

Natural gas would be a great fuel to use in your vehicle. It's cheap and runs very clean. To think we could use this WHILE we R&D renewable energy. What a concept!
Posted By: Donkleaps Re: OIL - 03/07/12 12:22 AM
The company that comes out with the first self contained energy source will rule the world.

I suggest calling Tony Stark.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 03/09/12 04:26 AM
Originally Posted By: Wolfgang
The lefts desire for an electric car is really fucking stupid at this point. Talking about putting the cart before the horse. Think about it, you're plugging your car into an electrical outlet that is most likely going to be powered by energy supplied from a power plant that runs off coal or other fuel.


Unsurprisingly you do not understand concept of peak load.
Posted By: Kaotic Re: OIL - 03/09/12 10:34 PM
I would argue that you don't, since you're advocating for a car that must plug in when you get home.

Let's see. Peak electricity usage is in the evening all across this country starting around 3pm and ending around 10pm. So your solution is to make everyone buy an electric car that they plug in when they get home (6pm-ish), which will drive peak usage even higher, and then charge them more money for it so that they use less electricity.

[treasure] There was no cake smiley but when you figure out how to have all of this candy, AND eat it, then come back and talk to us about forcing people into something that requires greater use of a commodity that you're then going to, in the words of our illustrious leader, "necessarily skyrocket" into oblivion.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 03/10/12 02:44 AM
You are ether don't understand how peak demand works, don't understand how electric car charging works or being intentionally dense.

On the off chance that you really don't understand it, here how it works:

Electric cars generally get charged from 3 types of outlets - Level 1 - 120v ~15A, level 2 -220v 70A, and Level 3- 600v DC 400A+.

Level 1 and 2 are generally available in a household, level 3 requires dedicated line that normally would be available only on industrially-zoned property. If you only charge overnight at level 1 you get about 45miles, or it takes about 13 hours to fully charge. At level 2 you get to something like 60 miles PER HOUR charge rate. At level 3 it takes about 10 minutes to fully charge from empty, since maximum charge rate of the battery becomes a limiting factor.

Most electric cars would come with a home charging station, these are level 2 and they are "smart" chargers, that is you program them to charge your car off-peak.

So even if you drive your electric car completely dry, and even if you drive Tesla Model S with 300 miles range, you have enough time to charge it AT NIGHT since it only takes 4 hours to fully charge.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 03/10/12 02:59 AM
Charging and range are not at all problems with electric cars, it is cost. You pay high early adopter's premium, but that the only way to get this technology polished and economics of scale started.

I know conservative troglodytes talking heads love to tell zingers about electric cars, but unlike conventional cars electricity is produced domestically. So every time you charge your EV more money get to stay home, instead of going to the desert to people that don't really like us.

As to advantages of electric cars - fantastic acceleration, no need for transmission or active engine cooling systems - electric motors are much easier to repair (about as complicated as getting your alternator rewound)... so aside from batteries you are looking at a drive train that is capable of 1mil+ miles.
Posted By: Derid Re: OIL - 03/10/12 03:48 AM

Actually, less than economy of scale its cost of the batteries. The batteries use rare earth elements that currently have limited mining output. Domestic production is almost nil, though improving with the re-opening of the Mountain Pass CA mine owned by Molycorp.

Otherwise, most of the supply come either from politically unstable areas or China.

Once battery tech improves and prices come down due to prospecting new mines over the next decade, electric cars should become more viable regardless of govt trying to push it.

Ofc there are other issues, but mostly it still revolves around production costs for the batteries.
Posted By: Helemoto Re: OIL - 03/10/12 04:34 AM
Charging and range are not at all problems?????
That is the basic problem with them. If you give me a
electric car that can take me where I want to go when I want
to go like a combustion car then you will sell me one.
I can jump in my car right now and drive to Chicago in 10 hours but any electric car I can't.

You seem to forget that electric cars have been around as long as combustion cars, so all the early adopters have died already.

Once again you like to blame conservatives for you problems. Try and be honest with yourself some time. Always blaming conservatives makes you look like a fool.
Posted By: Wolfgang Re: OIL - 03/10/12 10:20 AM
I'm just going to wait on buying an electric car. The Volt can't seem to hold a charge, and that's the small issue. The big issue is that it also seems to catch fire. Then they have a $100,000 car that has all kinds of issues with it, like not starting. Although it's not 100% electric.

One would think these electrical cars are putting the cart before the horse. What good is it to claim you helping the environment, while plugging your car into an outlet that is most likely powered by coal or oil. If the whole Idea is to use clean energy how is this suppose to help if people buy a lot of cars that have to be plugged in.

AGAIN... I believe in an America that can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can use what we have to keep gasoline at a more manageable price range. All the while research & developing other energies that can and will be cleaner and more efficient. We simply are NOT at that capacity right now to say renewable energy is efficient enough to solely use that source.

If you want a cleaner fuel that costs less, natural gas is the way to go. It's a lot cleaner burning, and cheaper. Though I'm sure with higher demand the price would go up, but not to the levels as gasoline is right now. It just makes sense to use what we have to stabilize prices, unless you don't care that people that are struggling to buy food let alone fuel to go to and from work in order to have a paycheck. Unless you want those people living off the tax payer dime.
Posted By: Mithus Re: OIL - 03/10/12 03:43 PM
This is actuactly a plan from Uncle Sam. While middle class suffer more from the price of oil and other products that are afected by it.

The future generations will have all deep oil intact in their coast while other countries will have it depleted.

So you guys have money now(economy strong enough to buy it from another countries), and if the technology does not evolve quickly enough to cease the use of oil your country will have it to use for their army and etcs..

Maybe is a small price to pay to have this resource secured for next generations.
Posted By: Kaotic Re: OIL - 03/12/12 02:35 AM
I agree completely with you Mithus. There is definitely a strategy to not drilling all of our resources.

As for the electric car stuff, I think I'll model my decision off of Obama's and I'll buy one in 5 years. Assuming that they are still around.
Posted By: Sini Re: OIL - 03/23/12 06:15 PM
Analysis: More US drilling didn't drop gas price
Posted By: Tasorin Re: OIL - 03/23/12 06:19 PM
You guys crack me up.

Part of the strategy is to push pump prices and industrial products pricing to the point where the cost analysis yields that alternative forms of providing petrol and industrial products is cost effective or at least a break even cost scenario.

Stop playing sides of an agenda and pull your heads out the speaking points ass and take a couple steps back and look at the Global manipulation picture.
Posted By: Wolfgang Re: OIL - 03/24/12 01:34 AM
I just have a hard time believing "green algae" is going to be usable let alone efficient for at LEAST another 20 years. Hell they can't even get a total electric vehicle efficient enough to offset the cost. Also, when you go to plug in said electric vehicle you're probably getting that power from a source that is ran by coal or oil. Depending on what part of the country you're in.

If they sold efficient wind turbines & solar panels to the public, I would almost guarantee you people would buy it as long as it was cost efficient. Right now there's nothing that can do that. I would love to buy something like that and get off the power company's grid.

Can we sway OPEC? NO... but if we aren't buying oil from the middle east you can bet your sweet ass that they will be doing something to get that cash flow back. The President want's to act like we don't have to ability to use what we have now to offset the foreign shit. I have yet heard the President mention anything about natural gas. It's cheaper and cleaner, if they wanted to implement tax breaks on something. They should do so with changing over your vehicle from gasoline to natural gas. Have you ever seen an oil change from a vehicle that uses natural gas? It looks as clean as the day you put it in.

We have CNG (clean natural gas) in our forklifts and a couple other vehicles where I work. I seen them change the oil, it wasn't even close to being as dirty as a gasoline engine would make it. So if the President is talking about being serious about "All the Above" approach to keep fuel prices from going higher, then he should talk about Natural Gas. But he won't, it's obvious he's only talking about it because its an election year. Especially when his energy guru "CHU" doesn't mind the fuel prices. Even brazen enough to give himself an "A" on the energy policies. LAUGHABLE!

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