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#123646 - 03/03/14 03:57 AM Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3  
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Ukrainians oust pro-Russian leader that also happen to be highly corrupt. Russia responds by occupying Ukrainian province using ethnic Russian population as pretext. Ukraine happens to have US/Britain guarantees for its sovereignty via 90s-era nuclear disarmament treaty.

Possible outcomes:

a. Russia holds sham (might be even accurate) referendum, and permanently annexes territory on basis on the results. Nobody does anything about it.

b. Ukraine declares war on Russia, shooting war starts, but Ukraine doesn't get much support and start losing.

c. US gets involved in a limited way, Russia backs down.

d. US gets involved, Russia does not back down. A bunch of US aircraft carriers get sunk by Russian supersonic missiles.

e. Nukes start flying.


I think b. then c. will happen. I am willing to bet Putin will try to capture bigger area than Crimea, domestic pressure to justify his on-going leadership could force him into irrational actions.

Now, I think that WW3-with-nukes drastic outcomes are unlikely. Shooting war is possible, but unlikely if Putin stops at Crimea.

As to actual support for Ukraine, EU is too corrupt and dependent on Russian natural resources to do anything. US is too far away to have effective reach and no longer can dictate economic policy in EU. Sanctions are unlikely. EU that is already on a shaky fiscal ground is not going to commit to such massively expensive sanctions.

What I think Putin failed to understand is that Crimea under Russian control will be another Chechnya. Muslim population of tatars that are content as part of Ukraine will all but guaranteed will start radicalizing under Russian control.


#123648 - 03/03/14 04:33 AM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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Interesting take from Slate:

Quote:
The Crimea’s dependence on Ukraine for nearly all of it electricity makes it equally vulnerable to nonviolent retaliation. One suggestion making the rounds of the Ukrainian Internet is that the mainland, with warning, shut off the power for 15 minutes.


#123653 - 03/03/14 05:41 PM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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I think the most likely is Crimea gaining full autonomy, and quietly realigning with Ukraine on many issues while being vocally pro-Russian.

Seems like Putin, or at least his proxies have overplayed their hand. While Ukraine objects loudly to infractions against their sovereignty, at the end of the day realpolitik should set in and prevent bloodshed. Because dropping large segments of ethnic Russians from the voter rolls will help ensure Ukraine's real independence in the long run.

The Tatars are an interesting problem, but if Crimea does not have to implement Russian decrees and a local govt is smart enough to not cause problems.. I wonder if they would object to independence. I dont know the answer, and suspect it revolves around a great many local circumstances of which I am unaware.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
#123658 - 03/03/14 07:06 PM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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Next point of discussion - market effects.

Today was significant selloff, I don't think shooting (and further downturn) is likely, but not going to bet money on it since I can't estimate risk with all irrationality involved.

Buffet posted "value of money goes down during armed conflict" blog, what do you think of it?


#123659 - 03/03/14 07:50 PM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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While I agree with Buffet in general terms, I would also agree with you that trying to time the market based on something as inherently irrational as armed conflict is not optimal.

If you are comfortable going long, there may be some good discounts available on stable blue chips like ARMH under the general concept that you will be ahead whenever the bounce back occurs.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
#123661 - 03/03/14 09:03 PM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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I was eyeballing MMM and QCOM, but lets get back to talking about Russia.


#123668 - 03/04/14 04:56 PM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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I am surprised that things appear to be de-escalating.

Yes, Russian stock market and currency crashes probably have to do something with it, but Putin must have realized this would happen.

Something else outside of eye of media must have happened. Some back-channel deal with US on Syria or Iran?


#123669 - 03/04/14 06:04 PM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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Like I said - I see it ending in autonomy for Crimea. Unless something new has broken, the Russians are still there they have just backed off threatening the rest of eastern Ukraine.

Since Ukraine has leverage to keep Crimea in line over the long haul, anyone with a lick of common sense in the Kiev govt is going to want to shed those ethnic Russian voters from the rolls because it will make it much harder to re-install a pro Russian govt in Kiev.

Also, Syria/Iran deal could be part of it as well - might be why Obama was meeting with Bibi Netanyahu. Without Likud on board, AIPAC would make major political headaches regarding any Iran/Syria deal.


For who could be free when every other man's humour might domineer over him? - John Locke (2nd Treatise, sect 57)
#123679 - 03/05/14 02:35 AM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Derid]  
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I read interesting article suggesting that this incident could be used to re-align policy away from war on terror. I'd much rather we race Russia to Mars than waste all that money on paid child and grandma rapist and peeping tom salaries at TSA.

If so, Ukraine deserves more than 1B in aid.


#123683 - 03/05/14 05:02 AM Re: Russian invasion of Ukraine and World War 3 [Re: Sini]  
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From what little I have read into this.....

This seemed like a European funded protest that was timed during the Russian Olympics so it could fester into a shit storm while they had to sit on their hands.

I think the high level European string pullers that got their jimmies rustled over the billions lost when the trade deal failed. Say what you will about who is right and wrong here but this was a European corporate sponsored coup.

I don't think they expected the Russians to respond so quietly and swiftly after the Olympics ended. They expected to have this cat in the bag by the time they could respond. Russians were already putting boots on the ground before the news hit the media machine.

I'm not casting a right or wrong ballot here....But lets face it. These are two super power run corporate interest fighting over gas supply meant for the Europeans that Russia siphoned at the last minute.

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