Ukrainians oust pro-Russian leader that also happen to be highly corrupt. Russia responds by occupying Ukrainian province using ethnic Russian population as pretext. Ukraine happens to have US/Britain guarantees for its sovereignty via 90s-era nuclear disarmament treaty.

Possible outcomes:

a. Russia holds sham (might be even accurate) referendum, and permanently annexes territory on basis on the results. Nobody does anything about it.

b. Ukraine declares war on Russia, shooting war starts, but Ukraine doesn't get much support and start losing.

c. US gets involved in a limited way, Russia backs down.

d. US gets involved, Russia does not back down. A bunch of US aircraft carriers get sunk by Russian supersonic missiles.

e. Nukes start flying.


I think b. then c. will happen. I am willing to bet Putin will try to capture bigger area than Crimea, domestic pressure to justify his on-going leadership could force him into irrational actions.

Now, I think that WW3-with-nukes drastic outcomes are unlikely. Shooting war is possible, but unlikely if Putin stops at Crimea.

As to actual support for Ukraine, EU is too corrupt and dependent on Russian natural resources to do anything. US is too far away to have effective reach and no longer can dictate economic policy in EU. Sanctions are unlikely. EU that is already on a shaky fiscal ground is not going to commit to such massively expensive sanctions.

What I think Putin failed to understand is that Crimea under Russian control will be another Chechnya. Muslim population of tatars that are content as part of Ukraine will all but guaranteed will start radicalizing under Russian control.

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